A sad day for China and the world. Hope those being trapped will be rescued soon.
It is said that the U.S. first reported the earthquake in Sichuan, China. Though the U.S. may have the best earthquake data collection in the world, they may not have the best use of earthquake data. Like many other earthquakes, there were many abnormal animal behaviors prior to the Sichuan event. Naturally, researchers tried to find out whether animal could assist earthquakes prediction. The American strongly denied animal's abilities and focused only on geological earthquake prediction. The best they can do is to predict that a certain probability, says, 40% probability of earthquake will happen in a given area and a given period.
Prob_USA_Method = f (G)
Asian countries employed various animal prediction techniques but lacked the sophisticated U.S. geological data collection technologies.
Prob_Asia_Method = f (g + A) where A is animal factor. A small g is given because it is not as good.
Of course, the question is, if factor A is really a good factor. If A is good for earthquake prediction and if Asian countries have full access on the U.S. data, the probability may rises significantly, says, from 40% to 75%.
Prob = f (G + A)
That will save a lot of lives in the future.
3 意見:
Sichuan astro scientists were obviously busy observing the earthquake of stock market more than any datas?!? How can Asian countries have full sharing of the U.S. geological data? ha ... ha ... ha ... :-(
I found this one ar :
地震現象歌訣
震前動物有前兆，發現異常要報告。
牛馬騾羊不進圈，豬不吃食狗亂咬。
鴨不下水岸上鬧，鶏飛上樹高聲叫。
冰天雪地蛇出動，老鼠癡呆搬家逃。
兔子豎耳蹦又撞，魚兒驚慌水面跳。
蜜蜂群遷鬧轟轟，鴿子驚飛不回巢。
That involves in data sharing. The U.S don't emphasis on animal predictions. But other countries can do so and see if it can produce a more accurate forecast.
張貼意見